How to Win at Football (Soccer) Betting

Co-authored by wikiHow Staff

Last Updated: May 19, 2022 References Approved

If you enjoy following football, you might be interested to know that you can turn your passion for sports into a profitable side business. Winning at football betting is all about knowing the odds better than the bookies. To this end, expanding your knowledge of the sport, learning to convert odds to reliable probabilities, and narrowing down the most favorable circumstances for placing your bets can all end up paying dividends.

Method 1

Method 1 of 3:

Predicting Winners Accurately

1
Learn as much about football as possible. Take some time to thoroughly familiarize yourself with the landscape of the sport. This will give you a much better idea of how the leagues are structured, how clubs are ranked, who the standout players are in each club, and how individual matchups are determined. As a result, you’ll be able to make educated guesses about how a match or season is likely to turn out.
- Tune in to one of the major sports networks or scan the sports section of the newspaper to stay informed about the outcomes of big games.
- You can also dive deeper into club and player statistics on websites like ESPN, BBC UK, and Fox Sports.^{[1]
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2
Take other match-influencing factors into consideration. Knowing a club’s current ranking isn’t enough. Make sure you’re staying up to date on other critical developments, such as injuries, lineup alterations, and recent changes in coaching. The smallest detail could mean the difference between victory and defeat.^{[2]
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- Stats can tell you more about how a club is likely to perform than past victories. A club with a high scoring average may not be guaranteed a win if the opposing club’s goalkeeper has a record of blocking 75% of shots on goal.
- Instead of basing your selections solely on a club or player’s win-loss record, look closely at their specific offensive and defensive stats.
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3
Pay attention to the popular odds for clues about how a match might go. Just because everyone is betting a certain way doesn’t mean they’re more likely to be right. Still, checking to see what the general consensus is can be helpful when it comes to making well-reasoned picks. It’s possible that they know something you don’t.^{[3]
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- A sudden shift in the odds the day before a big game, for instance, could be an indicator that a star player is out with an injury or illness.
- Using the popular odds as a starting point and fine-tuning your selections from there can be a useful strategy when you’re not sure how to bet.

Method 2

Method 2 of 3:

Betting Wisely and Effectively

1
Stick to fulltime betting to avoid complex odds-making schemes. “Fulltime” betting is the most basic form of betting, and only concerns itself with three possible outcomes: win, lose, or draw. With fulltime betting, all you have to do is decide which team you think has the best chance of coming out on top. Simplifying the betting structure in this way allows you to focus on making safe selections.^{[4]
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- A common variation of fulltime betting is known as the “Asian handicap,” where a certain number of goals is either added to or deducted from the chosen club’s final score to prevent a draw. Asian handicaps make it possible to actually win money by betting on a losing team.^{[5]
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- Fulltime betting doesn’t always promise as large a payout as other schemes, but it gives you a better shot at winning smaller sums consistently.
2
Convert the odds to pure probability before making your selection. To calculate a rough probability from a given set of odds, take the second number of the set and divide it by the sum of both numbers. Then, multiply the resulting decimal by 100 to get the probability as a percentage.^{[6]
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- If a bookmaker is offering 4/6 odds on Liverpool, for example, it means their chances of winning are 0.6, or approximately 60%, which is reasonably strong.
- When the odds are presented in decimal form, simply divide 1 by the entire number, then multiply the answer by 100. For 2.26 odds, the process of conversion would look like this: 1/2.26 = 0.44247 x 100 = 44.25%.
- It’s important to calculate probability every time you make a bet. If you just eyeball the bookie’s odds, you could end up making a riskier bet than you would have otherwise.^{[7]
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Limit your number of bets on a single slip to keep the odds in your favor. Whenever possible, play it safe and restrict your selection to a single club, player, or result. Doing so makes it much easier to calculate probabilities without encountering an unexpected monkey wrench. The more variables you introduce, the slimmer your chances of making a profit.^{[8]
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- You’re far more likely to correctly predict that Newcastle United will win the match than that Ciaran Clark will make the game-winning goal for a final score of 3-1.
- It’s not uncommon for bookmakers to offer attractive prices and payouts for multiples. This is their way of enticing gamblers into a making bets that don’t favor them statistically.^{[9]
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Wait for the ideal time to lock in your bet. As a general rule, you want to hold off until you have as much insight as possible about the likely outcome of the match. Up-to-the-minute betting provides the most security, if your bookmaker offers it. If not, placing your bet on the day of the event is the safest course of action.^{[10]
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- Resist the temptation to place hefty bets in advance on the promise of major discounts or bonuses. You forfeit your ability to revise your prediction when you do this, which means you’re playing right into the bookie’s hands.
- Keep an eye out for special price multipliers on game day. These are usually offered in narrow windows of time at the bookmaker’s shop. If you like the probability of the odds specified, it can be a good way to increase your earnings.
- Odds are organic, not fixed, and can continue to change throughout a match. A certain club might be behind at first, but if they tend to score most of their goals in the second half, they could still pull it out.^{[11]
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Method 3

Method 3 of 3:

Gaining an Advantage in the Betting Market

1
Shop around to find the best odds and prices. Don’t let a particular company make you feel like they’re your only option. Visit many different bookmakers (both locally and online) and see what they have to offer. If you don’t like their terms, move onto the next one. Remember, it’s your money, and you’re free to risk it as you like.^{[12]
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- Taking the best available odds from multiple bookmakers knocks down the odds of them winning your money to around 1.5%, as opposed to the normal 5%.
- Run a search for top-rated odds checking websites to compare odds and prices from various online bookmakers.^{[13]
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2
Avoid betting on your favorite teams if the odds are against them. Just because a club or player is your favorite doesn’t mean they’re the favorite to win. Once you’ve performed a thorough probability assessment, it’s best to simply trust your judgment—let the odds dictate who you risk your money on, not your emotions.^{[14]
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- You’ll most often know the ins-and-outs of your favorite club better than any other, which can be a good thing, as long as you’ve done your due diligence and matched their stats directly with those of the opposing team.
3
Don’t be afraid to back a draw when the match could go either way. Sports fans like to see a clear winner, especially in high-profile matches. For this reason, bookmakers sometimes the increase the odds of an even final score. If neither club looks like a decisive winner, putting your money on a draw could help you recoup what you’ve wagered and then some.^{[15]
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- If you think one club might have a slight edge over the other, it may be a better idea to take an Asian handicap (if that scheme is offered) to give yourself an added advantage.
- Because of the relatively low scoring rate, you’re much more likely to see a draw in football than in other sports.
- This tactic can prove particularly successful when two clubs with similar stats and rankings face off against one another.^{[16]
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Community Q&A

Question

How to win soccer betting according to the odds?

Mohammad Ali ZS

Community Answer

Do this based on the teams' performances in the past seasons, including the times the 2 teams faced each other.

Warnings

Avoid betting more than you can responsibly afford to lose at one time. Doing so could put you in dire straits financially.

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Sports-related gambling is illegal in some areas. Make sure you’re familiar with your local laws before you place your bets.

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Sports betting is a form of gambling, which has the potential to become an unhealthy obsession. If you suffer from a gambling addiction, seek help from a qualified counselor or addiction specialist.^{[18]
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