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Chapter 8

Probability

Book Version 1
By Boundless
Boundless Statistics
Statistics
by Boundless
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Section 1
What Are the Chances?
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Fundamentals of Probability

Probability is the branch of mathematics that deals with the likelihood that certain outcomes will occur. There are five basic rules, or axioms, that one must understand while studying the fundamentals of probability.

Conditional Probability

The conditional probability of an event is the probability that an event will occur given that another event has occurred.

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Unions and Intersections

Union and intersection are two key concepts in set theory and probability.

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Complementary Events

The complement of $A$ is the event in which $A$ does not occur.

Section 2
Probability Rules
The Addition Rule

The addition rule states the probability of two events is the sum of the probability that either will happen minus the probability that both will happen.

The Multiplication Rule

The multiplication rule states that the probability that $A$ and $B$ both occur is equal to the probability that $B$ occurs times the conditional probability that $A$ occurs given that $B$ occurs.

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Independence

To say that two events are independent means that the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the other.

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Counting Rules and Techniques

Combinatorics is a branch of mathematics concerning the study of finite or countable discrete structures.

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Bayes' Rule

Bayes' rule expresses how a subjective degree of belief should rationally change to account for evidence.

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The Collins Case

The People of the State of California v. Collins was a 1968 jury trial in California that made notorious forensic use of statistics and probability.

Section 3
More About Chance
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The Paradox of the Chevalier De Méré

de Méré observed that getting at least one 6 with 4 throws of a die was more probable than getting double 6's with 24 throws of a pair of dice.

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Are Real Dice Fair?

A fair die has an equal probability of landing face-up on each number.

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Boundless Statistics by Boundless
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Sampling
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Probability
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Probability and Variability
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