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The Addition Rule

The addition rule states the probability of two events is the sum of the probability that either will happen minus the probability that both will happen.

Learning Objective

  • Calculate the probability of an event using the addition rule


Key Points

    • The addition rule is: P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B).P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cap B).P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B).
    • The last term has been accounted for twice, once in P(A)P(A)P(A) and once in P(B)P(B)P(B), so it must be subtracted once so that it is not double-counted.
    • If AAA and BBB are disjoint, then P(A∩B)=0P(A\cap B)=0P(A∩B)=0, so the formula becomes P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B).P(A \cup B)=P(A) + P(B).P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B).

Term

  • probability

    The relative likelihood of an event happening.


Full Text

Addition Law

The addition law of probability (sometimes referred to as the addition rule or sum rule), states that the probability that AAA or BBB will occur is the sum of the probabilities that AAA will happen and that BBB will happen, minus the probability that both AAA and BBB will happen. The addition rule is summarized by the formula:

P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)\displaystyle P(A \cup B) = P(A)+P(B)-P(A \cap B)P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)

Consider the following example. When drawing one card out of a deck of 525252 playing cards, what is the probability of getting heart or a face card (king, queen, or jack)? Let HHH denote drawing a heart and FFF denote drawing a face card. Since there are 131313 hearts and a total of 121212 face cards (333 of each suit: spades, hearts, diamonds and clubs), but only 333 face cards of hearts, we obtain:

P(H)=1352\displaystyle P(H) = \frac{13}{52}P(H)=​52​​13​​

P(F)=1252\displaystyle P(F) = \frac{12}{52}P(F)=​52​​12​​

P(F∩H)=352\displaystyle P(F \cap H) = \frac{3}{52}P(F∩H)=​52​​3​​

Using the addition rule, we get:

P(H∪F)=P(H)+P(F)−P(H∩F)=1352+1252−352\displaystyle \begin{aligned} P(H\cup F)&=P(H)+P(F)-P(H\cap F)\\ &=\frac { 13 }{ 52 } +\frac { 12 }{ 52 } -\frac { 3 }{ 52 } \end{aligned}​P(H∪F)​​​​=P(H)+P(F)−P(H∩F)​=​52​​13​​+​52​​12​​−​52​​3​​​​

The reason for subtracting the last term is that otherwise we would be counting the middle section twice (since HHH and FFF overlap). 

Addition Rule for Disjoint Events

Suppose AAA and BBB are disjoint, their intersection is empty. Then the probability of their intersection is zero. In symbols: P(A∩B)=0P(A \cap B) = 0P(A∩B)=0. The addition law then simplifies to:

P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)whenA∩B=∅P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) \qquad \text{when} \qquad A \cap B = \emptysetP(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)whenA∩B=∅ 

The symbol ∅\emptyset∅ represents the empty set, which indicates that in this case AAA and BBB do not have any elements in common (they do not overlap).

Example:

Suppose a card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards: what is the probability of getting a king or a queen? Let AAA represent the event that a king is drawn and BBB represent the event that a queen is drawn. These two events are disjoint, since there are no kings that are also queens. Thus:

P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)=452+452=852=213\displaystyle \begin{aligned} P(A \cup B) &= P(A) + P(B)\\&=\frac{4}{52}+\frac{4}{52}\\&=\frac{8}{52}\\&=\frac{2}{13} \end{aligned}​P(A∪B)​​​​​​=P(A)+P(B)​=​52​​4​​+​52​​4​​​=​52​​8​​​=​13​​2​​​​

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