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Identification of Hypertension Predictors and Application to Hypertension Prediction in an Urban Han Chinese Population: A Longitudinal Study, 2005–2010

ORIGINAL RESEARCH — Volume 12 — October 29, 2015

PEER REVIEWED

Figure 1. Prevalence of hypertension, by age, at baseline, in an urban Han population, China, 2005–2010.

Age, y Hypertension Prevalence, %
Men Women
18 17.91 2.08
19 10.23 0
20 15.44 4.92
21 8.6 0.69
22 12.02 1.78
23 12.46 2.65
24 12.54 2.91
25 12.46 1.27
26 11.47 2.29
27 12.91 2.2
28 13.09 2.44
29 12.45 3.09
30 15.51 2.2
31 14.29 3.05
32 16.94 3.04
33 15.5 2.93
34 17.29 3.17
35 20.71 3.74
36 21.73 3.7
37 17.62 4.38
38 24.19 4.66
39 25.43 4.06
40 27.93 6.99
41 27.77 7.32
42 28.43 8.98
43 30.2 9.79
44 30.46 10.73
45 33.55 13.02
46 35.34 13.72
47 35.13 14.55
48 39.21 18.88
49 35.91 18.22
50 37.45 21.62
51 40.97 24.39
52 41.46 26.11
53 40.85 27.83
54 43.43 32.16
55 43.27 32.58
56 43.24 33.78
57 44.41 41.92
58 49.64 42.96
59 46.72 45.53
60 48.8 45.95
61 48.34 44.26
62 53.5 46.58
63 55 54.62
64 53.31 54.97
65 55.68 53.95
66 58.91 58.79
67 58.59 53.8
68 64.62 53.09
69 62.35 60.38
70 64.94 62.96
71 64.99 68.25
72 63.95 62.41
73 71.99 68.16
74 71.12 70.61
75 71.35 69.83
76 71.97 69.68
77 79.4 67.8
78 74.42 75.42
79 70.62 73.86
80 72.4 68.63
81 64.89 75.61
82 70.68 71.74
83 77.27 58.06
84 70.59 81.82
85 60 68.42

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For men: HSP = (0.097345 × body mass index) + (0.045604 × systolic blood pressure) + (0.051722 × diastolic blood pressure) + (0.147807 × fasting blood glucose) + (0.096384 × triglycerides) – (0.00694 × high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) + (0.007746 × hemoglobin) + (0.0022516 × hematocrit) + (0.05383 × white blood cell count) + (0.050579 × lymphocyte count) + (0.074163 × neutrophil granulocyte count) − 71.26765. For women: HSP = (0.114583 × body mass index) + (0.033556 × systolic blood pressure) + (0.045974 × diastolic blood pressure) + (0.118307 × fasting blood glucose) + (0.158433 × triglycerides) – (0.33512 × high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) + (0.017102 × hemoglobin) + (0.065664 × hematocrit) + (0.119985 × white blood cell count) + (0.26673 × lymphocyte count) – (0.111738 × neutrophil granulocyte count) − 66.90516.

Figure 2. The 5-year risk matrix for risk appraisal of hypertension by sex. Graphs A1 and B1 are absolute risk matrices for men and women, respectively; graphs A2 and B2 are relative absolute risk matrices for men and women, respectively. The dashed lines indicate discrimination criteria of absolute risk for predicting hypertension; the curved lines indicate mean absolute risk in the population. Abbreviation: HSP, hypertension synthetic predictor.

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Appendix B shows ROC curves for hypertension prediction models, which are represented in the 2 graphs.

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