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Volume
8: No. 1, January 2011
LETTER
Regression Model Fitting
With Quadratic Term Leads to Different Conclusion in Economic Analysis
of Washington State Smoking Ban [Response to Letter]
| Quarter/Year |
Sales in Millions, $ |
Segmented |
Quadratic |
| 1/02 |
96.2 |
95.9 |
101.0 |
| 2/02 |
98.9 |
95.7 |
98.7 |
| 3/02 |
99.5 |
95.4 |
96.7 |
| 4/02 |
95.3 |
95.2 |
95.0 |
| 1/03 |
90.5 |
95.0 |
93.5 |
| 2/03 |
92.1 |
94.7 |
92.4 |
| 3/03 |
93.1 |
94.5 |
91.5 |
| 4/03 |
92.9 |
94.3 |
90.9 |
| 1/04 |
89.4 |
94.0 |
90.6 |
| 2/04 |
92.1 |
93.8 |
90.6 |
| 3/04 |
96.9 |
93.5 |
90.9 |
| 4/04 |
93.7 |
93.3 |
91.4 |
| 1/05 |
91.0 |
93.1 |
92.2 |
| 2/05 |
97.0 |
92.8 |
93.3 |
| 3/05 |
98.6 |
92.6 |
94.7 |
| 4/05 |
97.7 |
92.4 |
96.3 |
| 1/06 |
91.4 |
92.1 |
98.3 |
| 2/06 |
96.3 |
96.4 |
100.5 |
| 3/06 |
99.3 |
100.8 |
103.0 |
| 4/06 |
97.9 |
105.1 |
105.8 |
| 1/07 |
99.7 |
109.4 |
108.9 |
| 2/07 |
114.2 |
113.7 |
112.2 |
| 3/07 |
126.0 |
118.0 |
115.8 |
| 4/07 |
124.2 |
122.3 |
119.7 |
Figure. Segmented and quadratic regressions fit to
taxable retail sales in bars and taverns in Washington State after the
implementation of a smoke-free law, from the first quarter of 2002 (1/02)
through the fourth quarter of 2007 (4/07). Values are adjusted for inflation
to the Consumer Price Index (www.bls.gov/cpi/).
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