unemployment

Examples of unemployment in the following topics:

• Measuring Unemployment

  • The unemployment rate is a measure of the prevalence of unemployment.
  • The ILO describes 4 different methods to calculate the unemployment rate:
  • This survey measures the unemployment rate based on the ILO definition.
  • This survey measures only civilian nonagricultural employment; thus, it does not calculate an unemployment rate, and it differs from the ILO unemployment rate definition.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics also calculates six alternate measures of unemployment, U1 through U6 (as diagramed in ), that measure different aspects of unemployment:

• Midterm elections and unemployment

  • % change in House seats for President's party = −6.71−1.00×(unemployment rate)
  • The data for the Great Depression (1934 and 1938) were removed because the unemployment rate was 21% and 18%, respectively.
  • The higher the unemployment, the greater the loss for the President's party in the House of Representatives.
  • Each of these points would have very high leverage on any least-squares regression line, and years with such high unemployment may not help us understand what would happen in other years where the unemployment is only modestly high.
  • The percent change in House seats for the President's party in each election from 1898 to 2010 plotted against the unemployment rate.

• Understanding regression output from software

  • The row labeled unemp represents the information for the slope, which is the coefficient of the unemployment variable.
  • That is, the data do not provide convincing evidence that a higher unemployment rate has any correspondence with smaller or larger losses for the President's party in the House of Representatives in midterm elections.
  • Output from statistical software for the regression line model- ing the midterm election losses for the President's party as a response to unemployment
  • The shaded tail represents the p-value for the hypothesis test evaluating whether there is convincing evidence that higher unemployment corresponds to a greater loss of House seats for the President's party during a midterm election.

• Statistical Literacy

  • This gives the false impression that unemployment increased steadily.

• Stem and Leaf Graphs (Stemplots), Line Graphs and Bar Graphs

  • Go to Outcomes of Education Figure 22 for an example of a bar graph that shows unemployment rates of persons 25 years and older for 2009.

• Inference for other estimators exercises

• Difference of two proportions exercises